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The Potential Market for AR, VR and the Metaverse

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by Aarushi Jain, Thomas Kalnas, Sydney Roberts, Kopal Srivastava, Feiyu Su, and Linshuang Wu

“Once a new technology rolls over you, if you’re not part of the steamroller, you are part of the road.”
— Stewart Brand, Writer

Web 2.0, launched in the 1990s, is the current version of the Internet that allows users to search for information, communicate with others through online channels, and publish user-generated content such as YouTube videos and blogs (Investopedia, 2022). While Web 2.0 has revolutionized the way users interact with each other, many cite that they have lost control of personal data to big tech companies. For example, there has been controversy over TikTok providing users’ personal data to marketers and, even worse, foreign governments (Maheshwari & Holpuch, 2023). Other tech companies like Meta used the same technique as TikTok to collect users' data to place targeted advertisements (Ellis & McPhillips, 2023). 

Web3 is a rapidly growing market that holds immense potential for businesses. Experts predict that by 2027, there will be 1 billion active users in Web3 (Kshetri, 2022). Broadly speaking, Web3 covers the underlying technology (blockchain) and its decentralized ownership model (DAOs, Non-Fungible Tokens [NFTs] and cryptocurrencies), and includes some (but not all) immersive user experiences (Zhao, 2022). This study primarily focuses on the immersive user experiences available through Web2 and Web3 ecosystems, specifically encompassing virtual reality (VR), augmented reality (AR), and the metaverse. This research is increasingly relevant to the core business of our client, XRM Media (XRM).

Importance of the Study

Even though VR, AR, and the metaverse are already a growing part of the consumer marketplace, it is still important to define these relatively new technologies since they are not yet mainstream. VR technology enables users to immerse themselves in and “interact with a computer-generated environment, a simulation of the real world or an imaginary world” (Akbari et al, 2022). In contrast, AR technology incorporates digital elements or objects into the real-world environment in real-time (Akbari et al., 2022). The VR market is expected to generate a global revenue of $20.8 billion, and the AR market is projected to grow to $31.3 billion by 2027 (Statista, 2022). The market projections indicate the potential growth and opportunities in these immersive technologies.

The definition of the metaverse is still evolving with the development and implementation of immersive technology. Science fiction author Neal Stephenson coined the term “metaverse” in 1992 (XR Today, 2022). Since then, movies such as Ready Player One (2018) and Free Guy (2021) have depicted different versions of the metaverse. Matthew Ball, former global head of strategy for Amazon Studios, defined the metaverse in his book, The Metaverse: And How It Will Revolutionize Everything. In his words, the metaverse is “a never-ending virtual world where everyone dresses up as comical avatars and competes in immersive VR games to win points, jumps into their favorite franchises, and acts out their most impossible fantasies” (Ball, 2022, p.21). According to Statista, the market size of the metaverse is projected to reach $486 billion by 2030, with an annual growth rate of around 35% (2023).

The emergence of VR, AR, and the metaverse has created numerous new business opportunities, with investments pouring in from prominent companies across the technology and entertainment sectors. Meta (formerly Facebook) and Sony have made significant investments in VR headsets, while Apple has launched its much-awaited mixed reality (MR) glasses in 2023 (Statista, 2022a).

AR products have become widespread in utility and game-based applications. Alphabet’s AR product, Google Lens, has 500 million downloads (Statista, 2023c). Nintendo’s AR game, Pokémon Go, has become a cultural phenomenon with over 70 million players worldwide in 2021 (Iqbal, 2023). Moreover, the metaverse has become a particularly popular area of interest. For example, Roblox, one of the most popular and financially successful metaverse gaming platforms, reported 55 million daily users as of February 2022 (Kshetri, 2022). Meta’s Reality Labs program is expected to cost $25 billion per year for a decade, an amount comparable to the cost of the Apollo Space Program (Statista, 2023a). Such a massive investment highlights the immense potential of the metaverse as a business opportunity. However, it is important to note that the recent layoffs at Meta are reported to largely affect its metaverse plans (Hayward, 2023). In addition, Meta’s VR platform, Horizon Worlds, reportedly remained “buggy and unpopular, leading Meta to put in place a ‘quality lockdown’” (Mac et al, 2022). In March 2023, Disney eliminated its metaverse team, founded in 2022 by former CEO Bob Chapek (Thomas, 2023). These examples demonstrate that immersive technologies are still evolving, and success is not guaranteed.

Companies should analyze consumer preferences and trends to navigate the unpredictable nature of the market and mitigate risk. Our research yielded valuable consumer insights in this emerging field, which we have shared in recommendations to XRM. Additionally, our interviews with industry leaders helped us identify several business-to-business (B2B) trends, which should prove of value to the company.

Research Frameworks

This research is dedicated to answering the following question: How can independent studios meet the demand for entertainment content for both B2B clients and partnerships and B2C (consumer market), specifically in the VR, AR, and metaverse verticals? To answer the question, we have explored:

  1. What is the consumer demand for new technologies in the entertainment space?

  2. Is there a shift in demand in the type of content consumers want to engage with?

  3. What is the general understanding of consumers regarding these new technologies?

  4. What do industry leaders think about the future for these technologies and their entertainment applications?

Methodology

We conducted primary and secondary research to answer our research questions. For secondary research, we reviewed books, journals, news articles, and market research reports related to VR, AR, and the metaverse, which provided us with insights into their current status and applications in the entertainment industry.

As a part of our primary research, we interviewed 11 industry leaders, including professionals specializing in Web3, independent studios, journalism, publishing, and immersive technology. Furthermore, we conducted a consumer survey to collect information to assess consumers' current interaction with advent technology (specifically AR, VR, and the metaverse) and appetites for content in the space. The survey was launched on February 9, 2023, and ended on March 31, 2023, during which 206 survey results were collected (United States and Canada-based survey participants).

Limitations of the Study

This project's research has three major limitations. First, our survey was restricted to convenience sampling as our distribution channels were limited. Second, due to legal and ethical considerations, we were unable to gather primary data on Gen Alpha, young people born between 2010 and 2024. Finally, some interviewees may be biased given their affiliations with our client, XRM.

Definition of Terms

We used the definitions of terms below throughout our study:

  • Augmented Reality (AR): A technology that inserts layers of digital elements over real-world objects, accessible through smartphones, AR glasses, or “goggles” (Gillis, 2022).

  • Avatars: Computer-generated 3D characters also known as “digital twins or doubles” that represent users through motion capture technology or imaginary characters (Gartner, n.d.).

  • Blockchain: A shared, immutable ledger that facilitates the process of recording transactions and tracking assets in a business network (IBM, n.d.).

  • Centralized Database: The system in which all the data is stored and managed in a single unit (DatabaseTown, n.d.).

  • Decentralized Database: Instead of large parts of the internet controlled and owned by large technology companies, ownership gets distributed amongst its creators and users (Ethereum, n.d.).

  • Gamification: Applying competition, point scoring, and other elements of game playing to digital marketing campaigns to encourage engagement with a product or service (BI WORLDWIDE, 2023).

  • Metaverse: An immersive virtual space where users and elements can interact through VR and AR technologies (XR Today, 2022).

  • Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs): Assets that have been “tokenized” via a blockchain. They are assigned unique identification codes and metadata that distinguish them from other tokens. NFTs can be traded and exchanged for money, cryptocurrencies, original art, or other NFTs (Sharma, 2023).

  • Virtual Reality (VR): Computer-generated environments that users can experience through headsets and/or controllers, allowing them to immerse themselves in a simulated experience (Virtual Reality Society, 2017).

  • Web3: A concept based on the development and implementation of decentralized technologies, particularly blockchain-based, for mass Internet use (Nix, 2023).

Summary

Web3 technologies will only scale in the future. Forward-thinking technology and entertainment companies are already either planning or entering this emergent market. Our study examines how independent studios like XRM can leverage their knowledge of B2C demand for VR, AR, and metaverse content to meet their B2B client needs. 

Current State of VR, AR, and the Metaverse

At present, VR applications are headset-based, with Meta’s Oculus Quest being the most popular, having sold over 15 million units to date (Naysmith, 2022). However, when compared to the billions of dollars that companies like Meta have invested in VR programs, this number still seems relatively small. Moreover, global shipments of VR headsets and AR devices have dropped more than 12% from 2021 to 2022 (Vanian, 2022). The shift from isolation during the pandemic back to a normal life was a contributing factor to this drop (Osterland, 2020). A tightening of consumer budget due to a weak economy also cut down the purchase of “non- essential” things such as VR headsets (Vanian, 2022).

Despite these challenges, the VR market is projected to grow significantly, with an estimated value of approximately $20 billion by 2027 (Statista, 2022b). As VR technology continues to evolve, there is room for improvement in the user experience. One promising area for improvement is haptic technology, which incorporates vibrations, motions, and kinetic forces into the controller, enabling users to feel the sensation of touch and adding a realistic element to the experience. The demand for this type of technology is expected to increase by at least 16% over the next two years (Boréas Technologies, 2022).

Unlike VR, which is headset-based, consumers mostly use AR on their mobile devices. The AR market is projected to grow to $24 billion by 2027, with a significant focus on gaming, which is expected to generate revenue of over $7 billion (Statista, 2022c). AR is also very prominent in social media, with Snap Inc. reporting that in 2021, approximately 1.5 billion individuals utilized AR through social or communication apps in the form of avatars or face filters like Snapchat or Instagram filters (2021). This number is expected to grow to 4.5 billion by 2024 (Snap Inc., 2021). Moreover, AR has also become an effective advertising tool to capture consumer attention, with studies demonstrating that AR advertisements generate 94% higher conversion rates, compared to ads without AR or 3D content (Shopify, 2020). As Figure 1 shows, the fast-food company Burger King launched a successful AR campaign titled “Burn That Ad” in 2019 that saw a 55% increase in sales on the Burger King app and garnered over a billion impressions worldwide (The Drum, 2019). While AR has promising growth prospects, it is imperative to address several challenges, such as latency in delivery and inaccuracies in the camera’s depth perception (ImagineAR, 2021).

Figure 1. “Burn That Ad” Campaign by Burger King. How it works: Burger King customers point their smartphone cameras at a McDonald’s advertisement, watch the ad burst into flames, and receive a free Whopper as a reward. Retrieved from https://digitalagencynetwork.com/burger-king-uses-augmented-reality-to-burn-that-ad-digitally/

The metaverse market is still in its nascent stage, and current network technologies are not advanced enough to achieve a metaverse as depicted in fictional work (Ball, 2022, p.48). Currently, the metaverse is presented in diverse forms with the most prominent examples being centralized platforms such as Roblox, Fortnite, and Minecraft (Statista, 2023a). In addition to such centralized platforms, there are also blockchain-based (Web3) metaverse platforms such as Decentraland and Sandbox Metaverse, where users can trade NFTs and claim ownership of digital assets. Experts predict that by 2030, the metaverse will generate over $930 billion in revenue (Grand View Research, 2023).

Consumer Awareness and Interest in VR, AR, and the Metaverse

While VR and AR are growing to be familiar technologies to consumers, the metaverse is comparatively still relatively novel. According to Ipsos, less than 40% of Americans are familiar with the metaverse, and only 10% of consumers have engaged with it (Peterson et al, 2022).

Despite the current low level of engagement, consumers are curious about the possibilities of experiencing a wide range of activities in the metaverse, including social events, gaming, entertainment, travel, and shopping (Elmasry et al., 2022). A survey found that 90% of respondents said that they want to get involved in the metaverse (Accenture, 2023).

Gaming is still the primary motive for people to purchase a VR headset. Over 80% of US households that currently own a VR headset have used it for gaming (National Research Group, 2022). However, it’s not consumers’ only interest. A survey shows that consumers also hope to use VR for activities like visiting museums, attending concerts, taking virtual fitness and cooking classes, participating in social events, and shopping (Statista, 2022b).

AR was first used for aviation, military, and industrial simulations but has since expanded its applications (Javornik, 2016). In 2023, one of the main motives for consumers to use AR is for shopping. AR enables them to try on shoes, glasses, cosmetics, and apparel without going to stores in a trend that is becoming increasingly popular (Pennington, 2022). Additionally, consumers have expressed an interest in using AR to experience conferences and live events like sports and concerts (Pennington, 2022).

Entertainment Industry Applications of VR, AR, and the Metaverse

The entertainment industry has been utilizing VR in different ways in addition to gaming. Yosemite VR, located in Oakhurst, CA, has become “the first permanent motion VR theatre in the U.S.” since its opening in July 2022 (Sheremetov, 2022). Studios like 360 Labs, East City Films, and MindVR have created abundant VR content for their entertainment clients (Sheremetov, 2022). Musicians also have integrated VR into their live performances with apps like MelodyVR. Additionally, VR has made its way into amusement parks. For example, Coastality in Europa-Park and The Demon in Tivoli Gardens (Sheremetov, 2022).

Mobile gaming is one of the most prominent AR applications in the entertainment industry. Utilizing computer vision, AI, and sensor data, AR mobile games like Pokémon Go, Walking Dead: Our World, and Ingress provide users with an immersive experience. AR is also currently being used by artists and TV shows in various ways. “A-list” musicians like Billie Eilish and Muse have integrated AR into their music videos and live performances. The Netflix game show, The Circle, used AR to engage audiences by allowing them to scan specific objects in the show to learn more about the contestants (Petrenko, 2021).

Entertainment companies have started to leverage the metaverse to strengthen their competitive footing in the industry. For example, studios are actively seeking ways to utilize the core technologies of the metaverse, such as game engines. Game engines are software development tools that allow users to create video games or other forms of digital media. The adoption of game engines has enabled studios to create special effects in The Lion King (2017) and The Mandalorian (2019) (Ball, pp. 118-119).

Despite the challenges faced by the introduction of new technologies, the markets for VR, AR, and the metaverse are projected to grow significantly. The research cited above has also proven that consumers are interested in engaging in various activities utilizing VR and AR technology, as well as in the metaverse. Part 2 of this research to be published August 15, 2024, presents a detailed analysis of the current state of consumer engagement with these technologies, challenges in adoption, and major B2B trends based on our primary consumer survey results and industry expert interviews.

The previous research was conducted as a core component of the Master of Entertainment Industry Management degree at The H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management at Carnegie Mellon University.  The research team included: Aarushi Jain, Thomas Kalnas, Sydney Roberts, Kopal Srivastava, Feiyu Su, and Linshuang Wu

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