This two-part post was excerpted from the research conducted and report written by Carnegie Mellon Master of Entertainment Industry Management students Peter Geyer, Claudeen Guillaume, Fangyi Liu, Zhuo Sun, and Luran Zhang.

As noted in part one, the key to rebuilding the post-pandemic movie theatre audience will be to understand the key influences on the purchase pathway. As previous research detailed, there are frameworks of influence that movie makers and marketers need to understand, notably:   

1. Marketing communications,  

2. Sources of neutral information,  

3. Film characteristics, and  

4. Ease.  

It is also critical to understand differences between frequent attendees and more general movie goers. To do this, an online survey was distributed. The first part of this qualitative survey asked respondents about their general movie preferences and media consumption behavior. Part two asked them to recall the most recent movie they saw in 2019 followed by questions regarding timing and elements in each of the three steps, including first exposure, attitude formation, and purchase behavior.  

The survey focused on people aged 18 to 44 (broken up into the age brackets 18-24, 25-34, and 35-44) who saw at least one movie, in a theater, in 2019. The survey excluded people who work in the film industry to eliminate biases and to obtain an accurate picture of general moviegoers. The final sample size after cleaning the data was 319.  

The collected sample was divided into frequent and occasional moviegoers. This allowed for comparison across the two groups with the results from each question. This helped identify the common process that each group takes before attending a theatrical movie. Additionally, a comparison across the three age groups helped determine if the decision-making process varies among ages. The online survey was hosted by Toluna, a media, survey development, and consumer insights company,  

In the survey, participants who reported seeing six to 11 movies in the past 12 months were considered occasional moviegoers, and participants who claimed to have seen 12 or more movies over the past 12 months were considered frequent moviegoers. Those who had seen less than six movies in the past year were terminated from the sample, ensuring that every complete survey would be relevant to the analysis.  

Toluna distributed the survey to a total of 1,117 participants, of which 319 qualified and completed. Seven hundred ninety-six, or 71%, of all initial respondents were disqualified because they did not meet the benchmark of watching at least six movies in theaters within the past 12 months. Three hundred nineteen respondents, or 29% of those initially surveyed, had seen six or more and were able to continue (see Figure 1). There were two respondents who qualified and completed the survey but provided answers that were extreme outliers and skewed the data. These outliers’ responses were removed, excluding them from the 319 composing the final data capture.  

The participants fell into three age ranges, 18-24 years old (38% of the sample), 25-34 years old (39% of the sample), and 35-44 years old (23% of the sample). Furthermore, the sample was 45% female and 55% male. Completed surveys came from 44 states. Proportionate to the states with the highest populations, New York, California, Florida, and Texas had the highest number of completions. Other demographic information, such as income and education level, were included in the survey but were not readily used in the analysis.  

General Survey Analysis

To track the path of occasional and frequent moviegoers, the two groups had to first be identified. To do so, respondents were asked the number of movies they had seen in the last 12 months. This resulted in the sample consisting of 199 occasional moviegoers and 120 frequent moviegoers. Frequent moviegoers, who watched twelve or more movies theatrically in the past year, were split virtually evenly between genders with 49% female and 51% male. Occasional moviegoers are 61% male. Within the occasional moviegoer population, 43% are 18-24, 33% are 25-34, and 24% are 34-44 years old. As for frequent moviegoers, 36% are 18-24, 43% are 25-34, and 21% are 35-44 (see Figure 2).

Fifty-one percent of respondents reported typically seeing online trailers and 46% of respondents reported typically seeing previews at the theater. Respondents in the study saw movie trailers most prominently, showing that they are crucial in generating awareness abound a film. Respondents also learned about films from other people, both online and in person. They also reported seeing ads on social media and theater lobby posters. Ads in magazines or newspapers will soon be irrelevant because data shows that people 18-24 see fewer ads through these mediums because they are not reading print. This includes the online versions of these publications. The data shows that only about 10% people see advertisements for movies from magazines and newspapers. As this generation ages and grows into the main moviegoing population, less of the target audience will be reached in this way.

It is worthwhile to know if the genre plays a role in respondents’ decision to see a movie in theaters or at home. Data shows males generally prefer to watch drama, dark comedies, and mysteries at home and like to watch action and adventure in theaters. Those 18-34 are particularly less interested in watching dark comedy, drama, and mystery in theaters. Overall, the data indicate that females are more interested in watching sci-fi at home while preferring action, comedy, and drama in the theater. Sixty-eight percent of respondents prefer to see action movies in theaters, and both gender and all age groups have a positive attitude toward seeing action movies in theaters.

Because an overwhelming amount of content is being produced by all facets of the entertainment industry, we also analyzed respondents’ media consumption. Magazines are the least popular media consumed by respondents followed closely after by newspapers. Social media and video streaming services are the most heavily consumed with over 20% of respondents reporting that they spend over four hours per day consuming content through these mediums. Gaming is a pastime that is being embraced more by the general population with the explosion of esports. Twenty percent of males in the survey are heavy gamers who play more than four hours a day, compared to only 7% of females who are heavy gamers. Moreover, respondents in the 25-44 age bracket consume more TV than those between 18-24 years old while the 18-24 age group consumes more social media and plays more video games. Overall, frequent moviegoers’ media consumption is heavier than occasional moviegoers.

Questions eight to 11 in the survey were designed to obtain information about frequent and occasional moviegoers’ general paths. Participants were provided a movie list in question eight. The list included both mid-budget movies and blockbusters that performed well in 2019. If respondents’ choices for question eight contained any mid-budget movies, the survey engine would randomly assign one of the mid-budget films to question nine. The respondent would eventually choose one movie for which he or she remembered seeing the most advertising to answer the following questions regarding the path of a moviegoer.

Pathway Analysis

The path analysis is divided into two parts. The first part focuses on path content, including how respondents were first exposed to a movie, how they made their decision to see the movie in the theater, how they bought the ticket, what they did before the movie, and whom they accompanied when going to the theater. The second part focuses on the timing of the path, including when people made the decision in each step and what is the overall duration of this decision-making process.

Path Content

The survey shows a similarity between frequent moviegoers and the occasional moviegoers when it comes to the first exposure to the movie. As shown in Figure 3, the top three sources driving awareness among frequent moviegoers are “Trailer/preview I saw online,” “Trailer/preview I saw in the theater,” and “An ad on social media.” The top three sources for occasional moviegoers are “Trailer/preview I saw in the theater,” “Trailer/preview I saw online,” and “An ad I saw online.”

Comparing the two frequency groups, the study also demonstrates that frequent moviegoers selected more reviews from critics as their first exposure while occasional moviegoers chose more television shows as the first exposure (Figure 4). This suggests that frequent moviegoers tend to follow movie news proactively while occasional moviegoers tend to learn about the movie through regular media consumption.

The overwhelming majority of participants (97%) knew they wanted to see the films after their first exposures, indicating the importance of the online and in-theater trailer/preview. However, while the majority of occasional and frequent moviegoers knew they might want to see the movie after their first exposure, occasional moviegoers were more reluctant after that first exposure, implying that occasional moviegoers’ qualifying initial interest level is lower than that of frequent moviegoers (Figure 5).

The trailer or preview is the top factor that leads both frequent moviegoers and occasional moviegoers to see movies in theaters (Figure 6). As for the source of the trailer or preview, frequent moviegoers tended to rely on in-theater trailers while occasional moviegoers tended to rely on online trailers, which is likely because frequent moviegoers go to the theaters more often than the occasional moviegoers. Additionally, frequent moviegoers show more reliance on social media posts from influencers than occasional moviegoers. In contrast, occasional moviegoers tended to depend more on friends or family members’ recommendations, either in person or online.

The survey results (Figure 7) show a significant difference in the purchase channel between frequent moviegoers and occasional moviegoers. More than 56% of occasional moviegoers chose to purchase tickets at theaters. While a plurality of frequent moviegoers also purchase at theaters, they also tended to be more likely than occasional attendees to purchase online from theaters' websites. It also shows that more frequent moviegoers used free passes to see movies and more occasional moviegoers did not purchase tickets themselves, indicating that occasional moviegoers tend to follow their companion(s) in the purchasing process or even, very possibly, the decision-making process. Regardless of moviegoing frequency, younger audiences have a much higher tendency to only purchase tickets at theaters or on theaters’ websites with little usage of any third-party site.

The study (Figure 8) finds more occasional moviegoers would like to go to the theater with their family members or friends. This finding indicates that moviegoing is more of a social activity to the occasional moviegoers but a personal hobby to the frequent moviegoers. The study also shows that moviegoing is a date night event for both frequent and occasional moviegoers as the data is similar for both groups when it comes to going to the theater with the spouse/partner or a date/boyfriend/girlfriend.

Path Timing

In general, the majority of respondents first became aware of the movie more than one month before it was released (Figure 9). Within this time frame, more frequent moviegoers became aware of the marketing materials of the movie four months before it was released while more occasional moviegoers were first exposed one to three months before. This may be due to frequent moviegoers actively searching far ahead for the information on upcoming films. Of the three age groups, the responses from the 18-24-year-olds are the most consistent between occasional and frequent moviegoers across all options, implying that the frequent and occasional moviegoers of the younger age range may become equally aware due to a similar amounts of screen time for digital consumption. Thus, digital platforms might become the most common method of marketing. The younger age respondents are more used to information being displayed in front of them on their social media, so they are the least likely to actively search.

Almost 46% of frequent moviegoers decided to see the movie at the theater or the day of while occasional moviegoers tended to decide more than a day prior to the showtime that they wanted to see the movie (Figure 10). However, there is a strong tendency that frequent moviegoers decide either when the pre-sale ticket is available online or at the theater, and occasional moviegoers make their decision one day or more than one day before seeing the movie.

The majority of moviegoers (69.2% of the frequent and 74.9% of the occasional) purchased the ticket at the theater or the day of (Figure 11). It also shows an inclination that the younger the moviegoers are, the later they purchased their tickets.

Conclusions & Recommendations

Frequent moviegoers were generally exposed to the movie earlier than occasional moviegoers. While both groups first became aware of movies through trailers, frequent moviegoers tended to be exposed to trailers online, as compared to occasional moviegoers who first saw trailers in theaters.

After the first exposure, the attitude formation begins, which for frequent moviegoers tends to begin as occasional moviegoers are just first being exposed to the movie. A variety of components affect the attitude one has towards a movie. For frequent moviegoers, repeated viewings of trailers in theaters are most effective due to the tendency for these audience members to be going to the theater more often. Additionally, frequent moviegoers reported influencers’ social media posts as affecting their attitudes towards the movie in the survey question. It is important to note that an influencer does not necessarily mean a celebrity influencer; we suspect they are more likely to be a micro-influencer with a niche focus.

From this, one could speculate that frequent moviegoers follow online accounts that provide commentary and content relevant to films. This increased exposure naturally leads them to think about movies and moviegoing more often than occasional moviegoers. Frequently being exposed to movie-related subject matter, both negative and positive, would lead to a stronger, more ingrained attitude regarding the movie. This would lead frequent moviegoers to think more often about the specific movies they were exposed to, having a greater effect on their attitudes towards it. The opinions of family and friends are also more important and contribute more to the attitude of these moviegoers.

While the study indicates a trend of frequent moviegoers deciding they are going to see the movie closer to showtime than occasional moviegoers, occasional moviegoers, in comparison, decide earlier, more than one day in advance of the film. The actions of actually purchasing the tickets are reported to occur similarly for both groups: on the day of the movies at theaters.

Both groups purchase tickets at theaters most frequently, but frequent moviegoers are more likely to utilize a theater’s website to make the purchase, insinuating that they conduct more research into showtimes and theater info or are utilizing a theater’s loyalty program such as AMC A-List. See Figure 7.

Recommendation 1: Embrace Digital Marketing

The first recommendation is to prioritize digital marketing over physical marketing. Digital marketing is the future and it is a powerful factor in every film’s campaign and will continue to be so. The current situation of the world with Covid-19 has essentially made digital marketing one of the only viable and largely effective marketing methods for the time being. While this situation is not permanent, digital marketing’s importance will grow, and as both types of moviegoers do not respond as effectively to physical marketing including billboards, newspapers, and signage, utilizing creative and new strategies in digital marketing will prove most effective. As can be seen in Figure 13, first exposure to a film via social media, a digital marketing channel, leads to a higher likelihood of that consumer wanting to see that film.

Related to the first recommendation is decreasing the type, quantity, and variation of marketing that is utilized over digital channels. As the marketing world is becoming increasingly more digital, strategies to embrace this are of utmost importance. But standing out does not mean overwhelming one’s consumers with content. As can be seen in both Figure 13 and Figure 4, moviegoers surveyed had an overwhelming tendency to want to see a film after first exposure. Cutting down on marketing content variation produces efficiency among the marketing team and encourages creativity.

Experimental REcommendations

The next group of recommendations fall into the experimentation category. These are findings that, while supported by data, are outside of what would be considered traditional recommendations or strategies and would come with more risk. It must be acknowledged that the sample size of 319 may lack statistical significance in these bolder findings; nonetheless, insights drawn from these data are still supported.

Micro-Influencers

The first of these recommendations is to embrace micro-influencers who are associated with entertainment and/or provide commentary on media content to promote upcoming films. Micro-influencers are defined as having between one thousand and one million followers, but the key is not followers; it is high engagement rates. The influencer/follower relationship is the closest a studio can come to creating the positive effects of social media posts and word of mouth by family and friends. Micro-influencers are also one of the distinct differences in the attitude formation between frequent and occasional moviegoers, with frequent moviegoers citing influencers as playing a significant role in making respondents want to see the film. It is possible that, with the addition of paid promotion, this influence could extend further into the occasional moviegoers and even into the sector of moviegoers who see less than six films a year and were not surveyed. But to reiterate, it is high engagement that is key when considering micro-influencers as a method of promotion.

Shorter Marketing Campaigns

The next recommendation is to shorten the timeline of film campaigns as much as possible because the data suggests that marketing campaigns do not increase in effectiveness the longer they are. Instead of spreading resources and elements of the campaign over three or four months, it is recommended to keep it as short as possible. This means shortening the length of the marketing campaign that includes released, creative content. That is not to say that everything should be kept in secret until the last minute before a film is released, but the release of important marketing items, like trailers, should be positioned close to the movie’s release date. This would further enhance the cost-effectiveness of campaigns and allow consumers to act on the first impression they have of a film. Additionally, frequent and occasional moviegoers are made aware of the marketing campaign at various times, but the ticket purchase date is very similar, implying that when a consumer is first exposed to a film does not affect if and when they purchase.

Minimize Second-Weekend Drop Off

Minimizing the box office drop that is seen during a film's second weekend has been a long time priority for studios. The final experimental recommendation is to further minimize the box office drop from opening weekend to the second. As can be seen by in Figure 14, when mid-budget and larger budget films are compared, over 12% of respondents were unaware of the mid-budget films until after release. While it is a small percentage comparatively, capturing this target group would not be anything but an insignificant bump to the box office draw in the second weekend. Therefore, it is recommended to further engage with strategies to bring more audiences who have not experienced a first impression with the movie into the second weekend instead of relying purely on word-of-mouth and the continued pre-release marketing campaign after opening weekend. This is a time to capitalize on micro-influencers as their followers are now able to take action as soon as it is promoted to them.

The uncertainty of film exhibition’s future due to the effects of Covid-19 is harrowing. But with the data gathered, subsequent analysis, and strategies provided, studios will innovate, build upon, and prepare for what the new landscape will bring. Having an understanding of one’s audience is vital, even more so today with the increasingly unpredictable industry.